THE TIME MACHINE
Drag through every day of the war. Each number is what the record showed on that day.
Day 234
Day of the warMon, Oct 19, 2026
Day 1 · Feb 28, 2026Day 234 · Oct 19, 2026
Is there a deal yet?
COMPLICATED
- Said
- Oct 18, 2026 · TALKS_PAUSED · Araghchi says Iran's seven-day Hormuz reopening proposal is "still on the table"; sequencing dispute with Washington unresolved
- In force
- None observed holding. No formal termination on record.
Declared vs. observed vs. disputed
- Two-week ceasefire (Pakistan-mediated): Declared: superseded (the Islamabad Memorandum, Jun 17) · Observed: violated May 7 · Disputed
- Indefinite ceasefire extension: Declared: superseded (the Islamabad Memorandum, Jun 17) · Observed: violated May 25 · Disputed
- Islamabad Memorandum: Declared: claimed over by Trump (Jul 8); suspended by Iran (Jul 13); lapsed (60-day window, no extension, Aug 17); no formal termination on record · Observed: collapsed Jul 7–8 · Disputed
- Doha stand-down (informal): Declared: claimed over by Trump (Jul 8); no formal termination on record · Observed: collapsed Jul 7–8 · Disputed
“in some ways we have won decisively.”
- Deals announced
- 7
- Still operating
- 0
- Days “very close”
- 79
- Breakthroughs
- 11
Status: NOT CLOSE. Last “very close”: 76 days ago
Is Hormuz open?
NO.
4.1 ships a day. Normal is 85.
4.9% of normal · status CLOSED
IMF PortWatch · 7-day mean to Oct 11
normal = 84.8/day, PortWatch mean 2025-02-28..2026-02-27
The numbers that day
- U.S. gas
- $4.33week of Oct 12+$1.39 (+47.5%) since Day 1
- Brent
- $126.55as of Oct 14 (5 days old) · spot (physical), EIA+$55.23 (+77.4%) since Day 1
- S&P 500
- 7,659.44close, Oct 16+780.56 (+11.3%) since Day 1
- Approval
- 32%Reuters/Ipsos · fielded Sep 30–Oct 5 · published Oct 514-day average, all pollsters (M10): 38.7%
Known so far
Solid: what the record showed by the selected day. Dashed: what came after. Red line: the selected day.
What happened next
Nothing yet. That’s today.
Every metric is recomputed with an as-of date and only sees records dated on or before that day. Polls count from their publish date. Prices and ship counts before Sep 25, 2026 come from the series as published today; revisions since then are logged.