FourWeekWar.comMon, Oct 19, 2026 · Day 234 · a CHOKEPOINT lens

THE FOUR-WEEK WAR.WEEK 34.

Promised4 weeks
Actual, so far33 weeks, 3 days
Schedule variance+30 weeks

DERIVED M11 · war week = ceil(day ÷ 7), Day 1 = Feb 28, 2026 · M2 breakthroughs by birth week

THE PROMISE · MAR 2 · DAY 3
“I don't want to see it go on too long. I always thought it would be four weeks. And we're a little ahead of schedule.”

Donald Trump · Phone interview with CNN's Jake Tapper · Mar 2

CNN (primary)KEYT (CNN) (secondary)PolitiFact (secondary)

THE REVISION · OCT 1 · DAY 216
“I stated, numerous times, that it would take 4-6 weeks to get rid of THE IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT, and I did it in one night!”

Donald Trump · Truth Social · Oct 1 · PolitiFact fact-check

PolitiFact (secondary)Raw Story (secondary)KEYT (CNN) (secondary)

THE SCHEDULE

One box per war week since Feb 28. Teal: as promised. Hatched: the revised range. Red: overtime.

  1. 1Feb 28
  2. 2Mar 7
  3. 3Mar 14
  4. 4Mar 21
  5. 5Mar 28
  6. 6Apr 4
  7. 7Apr 11
  8. 8Apr 18
  9. 9Apr 25
  10. 10May 2
  11. 11May 9
  12. 12May 16
  13. 13May 23
  14. 14May 30
  15. 15Jun 6
  16. 16Jun 13
  17. 17Jun 20
  18. 18Jun 27
  19. 19Jul 4
  20. 20Jul 11
  21. 21Jul 18
  22. 22Jul 25
  23. 23Aug 1
  24. 24Aug 8
  25. 25Aug 15
  26. 26Aug 22
  27. 27Aug 29
  28. 28Sep 5
  29. 29Sep 12
  30. 30Sep 19
  31. 31Sep 26
  32. 32Oct 3
  33. 33Oct 10
  34. 34Oct 17NOW
Weeks over, even on the revised schedule+28
Times the original estimate8.4×
Breakthroughs announced after week 410
Still operating0
Source
Promise:
clm-2026-03-02-001 · WAR_ENDING_SOON · 2026-03-02
Source (primary):
CNN, 2026-03-02
Source (secondary):
KEYT (CNN), 2026-10-02
Source (secondary):
PolitiFact, 2026-10-02
Revision:
clm-2026-10-01-001 · 2026-10-01
Revision source (secondary):
PolitiFact, 2026-10-02
Revision source (secondary):
Raw Story, 2026-10-02
Revision source (secondary):
KEYT (CNN), 2026-10-02
Formula:
M11 duration_weeks. War week = ceil(day_number ÷ 7), day_number = 2026-10-19 − 2026-02-28 + 1 (D2) = 234. Promised: 4 weeks (clm-2026-03-02-001); revised: up to 6 weeks (clm-2026-10-01-001). variance = war_week − promised; multiple = day_number ÷ (promised × 7), one decimal.

DERIVED methodology v1

How this is computed
derived.promise.four-week-war
M11 duration_weeks. War week = ceil(day_number ÷ 7), day_number = 2026-10-19 − 2026-02-28 + 1 (D2) = 234. Promised: 4 weeks (clm-2026-03-02-001); revised: up to 6 weeks (clm-2026-10-01-001). variance = war_week − promised; multiple = day_number ÷ (promised × 7), one decimal.
inputs (3): clm-2026-03-02-001, clm-2026-10-01-001, evt-2026-02-28-001
calculated 2026-10-19T15:33:20.591Z
derived.breakthroughs
M2. Every DEAL_REACHED/DEAL_FRAMEWORK/CEASEFIRE_REACHED event. Death = first strictly-later DEAL_DEAD, CEASEFIRE_BROKEN, TALKS_OFF event, or STRIKE/RETALIATION with severity ≥ 4. lifespan_days = death date − birth date (calendar days, America/New_York); for operating breakthroughs, age as of 2026-10-19.
inputs (17): evt-2026-03-25-001, evt-2026-04-07-001, evt-2026-04-08-001, evt-2026-04-16-001, evt-2026-04-21-001, evt-2026-05-07-001, evt-2026-05-23-001, evt-2026-06-05-001, evt-2026-06-12-001, evt-2026-06-14-001, evt-2026-06-17-001, evt-2026-06-26-001, evt-2026-06-28-001, evt-2026-07-07-002, evt-2026-08-01-001, evt-2026-08-04-001, evt-2026-08-17-001
calculated 2026-10-19T15:33:20.591Z

THE CALENDAR KEEPS GOING

Every real week since Day 1, with up to 2 notable sourced records each (breakthroughs and collapses first, then by severity).

  1. Week 1Feb 28 – Mar 6

    as promised

    • Feb 28 · WAR START
      US and Israel launch Operation Epic Fury against Iran US Central Command
    • Feb 28 · STRIKE
      Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed in strike; Iranian state media confirms Al Jazeera

    + 11 more records this week

  2. Week 2Mar 7 – Mar 13

    as promised

    • Mar 9 · VICTORY
      Donald Trump: “I think the war is very complete, pretty much” CBS News
    • Mar 13 · STRIKE
      US bombs Kharg Island; Trump says every military target 'obliterated', oil infrastructure spared NPR

    + 6 more records this week

  3. Week 3Mar 14 – Mar 20

    as promised

    • Mar 14 · VICTORY
      Donald Trump: “We have already destroyed 100% of Iran's Military capability, but it's easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are.” AOL (wire)
    • Mar 17 · STRIKE
      Israel kills Iran security chief Ali Larijani; Iran confirms Bloomberg

  4. Week 4Mar 21 – Mar 27

    as promised · the last promised week

    • Mar 21 · RETALIATION
      Iranian missiles hit Dimona and Arad near Israel's nuclear research center; 100+ injured Times of Israel
    • Mar 25 · DEAL FRAMEWORK
      US 15-point plan delivered to Iran via Pakistan; Tehran publicly denies talks Iran International

    + 13 more records this week

  5. Week 5Mar 28 – Apr 3

    revised range

    • Mar 28 · OTHER MAJOR EVENT
      Houthis enter the war with ballistic missile at Beersheba (intercepted) FDD
    • Apr 3 · OTHER MAJOR EVENT
      US F-15E shot down over Iran; both crew eventually rescued Military Times

    + 3 more records this week

  6. Week 6Apr 4 – Apr 10

    revised range

    • Apr 7 · CEASEFIRE REACHED
      Trump announces two-week ceasefire with Iran, brokered by Pakistan, conditioned on Hormuz reopening White House
    • Apr 8 · CEASEFIRE BROKEN
      Israel launches mass strikes on Lebanon; Netanyahu says ceasefire 'does not include Lebanon' Euronews

    + 13 more records this week

  7. Week 7Apr 11 – Apr 17

    overtime

    • Apr 12 · TALKS OFF
      Islamabad Talks end after 21 hours with no agreement Al Jazeera
    • Apr 16 · CEASEFIRE REACHED
      Israel and Lebanon agree 10-day ceasefire announced by Trump PBS NewsHour / AP

    + 11 more records this week

  8. Week 8Apr 18 – Apr 24

    overtime

    • Apr 18 · HORMUZ CLOSED
      Iran re-closes Hormuz one day after opening it, citing continued US blockade NPR
    • Apr 21 · CEASEFIRE REACHED
      Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely 'until discussions are concluded'; blockade continues CBS News

    + 7 more records this week

  9. Week 9Apr 25 – May 1

    overtime

    • Apr 28 · VICTORY
      Donald Trump: “Iran has just informed us that they are in a 'State of Collapse.' They want us to 'Open the Hormuz Strait,' as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation” Axios
    • Apr 29 · SANCTIONS · unverified
      Treasury sanctions 35 entities in Iran's shadow-banking network ('Operation Economic Fury') Business Standard

  10. Week 10May 2 – May 8

    overtime

    • May 3 · MILITARY POSTURE
      Trump announces 'Project Freedom' to escort ships through Hormuz Kurdistan24
    • May 7 · RETALIATION
      Iran attacks three U.S. destroyers in Hormuz; U.S. strikes back CENTCOM (via GlobalSecurity)

    + 13 more records this week

  11. Week 11May 9 – May 15

    overtime

    + 1 more record this week

  12. Week 12May 16 – May 22

    overtime

    • May 18 · MILITARY POSTURE
      Trump calls off planned May 19 attack on Iran at Gulf leaders' request Euronews
    • May 18 · DEAL SOON
      Donald Trump: “serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond.” Axios

    + 2 more records this week

  13. Week 13May 23 – May 29

    overtime

    • May 23 · DEAL FRAMEWORK
      Trump says Iran deal 'largely negotiated' NPR
    • May 25 · STRIKE
      U.S. 'self-defense' strikes on Bandar Abbas mine-laying boats and launch sites ABC (Australia)

    + 8 more records this week

  14. Week 14May 30 – Jun 5

    overtime

    • May 30 · HORMUZ RESTRICTED · unverified
      Iran's military reasserts 'full authority' over Hormuz transit Al Jazeera
    • Jun 5 · RETALIATION
      Iran fires drones at Hormuz and seven ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain CENTCOM

    + 6 more records this week

  15. Week 15Jun 6 – Jun 12

    overtime

    • Jun 9 · STRIKE
      U.S. strikes Iranian air defenses after Army Apache downed over Hormuz CENTCOM
    • Jun 12 · DEAL FRAMEWORK
      Araghchi: Islamabad MOU 'has never been closer'; text reportedly agreed Press TV

    + 7 more records this week

  16. Week 16Jun 13 – Jun 19

    overtime

    • Jun 14 · DEAL REACHED
      Trump declares Iran deal 'complete,' orders blockade lifted PBS NewsHour / AP
    • Jun 17 · DEAL REACHED
      Trump and Pezeshkian sign Islamabad Memorandum (Versailles / Tehran) Times of Israel

    + 16 more records this week

  17. Week 17Jun 20 – Jun 26

    overtime

    • Jun 20 · HORMUZ CLOSED
      IRGC Navy declares Hormuz closed citing U.S. 'breach of covenant'; CENTCOM says traffic flows Euronews
    • Jun 26 · STRIKE
      U.S. strikes Iranian missile, drone and radar sites after ship attack NPR

    + 10 more records this week

  18. Week 18Jun 27 – Jul 3

    overtime

    • Jun 27 · RETALIATION · unverified
      U.S. and Iran announce retaliatory strikes in Iran, Kuwait and Bahrain NPR
    • Jun 28 · CEASEFIRE REACHED
      U.S. and Iran agree to halt strikes, meet in Doha Axios

    + 3 more records this week

  19. Week 19Jul 4 – Jul 10

    overtime

    • Jul 7 · SHIP INCIDENT
      Iran attacks three commercial vessels in Hormuz; ceasefire collapses CENTCOM
    • Jul 8 · CEASEFIRE BROKEN
      Trump at NATO summit: 'I think it's over' NPR

    + 8 more records this week

  20. Week 20Jul 11 – Jul 17

    overtime

    • Jul 11 · STRIKE · unverified
      Third round: ~140 targets; 300+ struck across three nights CENTCOM
    • Jul 13 · MILITARY POSTURE
      U.S. announces reinstatement of naval blockade of Iran CENTCOM

    + 7 more records this week

  21. Week 21Jul 18 – Jul 24

    overtime

    • Jul 20 · STRIKE
      CENTCOM strikes Iranian coastal military targets (Abadan, Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, Chabahar) JINSA
    • Jul 23 · OTHER MAJOR EVENT
      Oil tops $100/bbl; Houthi Red Sea attack marks new escalation; Iran rejects US ceasefire proposal JINSA

    + 3 more records this week

  22. Week 22Jul 25 – Jul 31

    overtime

    • Jul 28 · RETALIATION
      IRGC 'surprise' ballistic missile attack on US forces in Jordan JINSA
    • Jul 29 · STRIKE
      US completes strikes on Iran after Trump vows to hit 'very hard'; Netanyahu at White House JINSA

    + 4 more records this week

  23. Week 23Aug 1 – Aug 7

    overtime

    • Aug 1 · DEAL FRAMEWORK
      Trump cancels planned 'massive attack' on Iran, citing rapid deal on Hormuz JINSA
    • Aug 4 · DEAL FRAMEWORK
      Axios: US, Iran, Oman near 60-day Hormuz corridor arrangement; Iran said to approve JINSA

    + 10 more records this week

  24. Week 24Aug 8 – Aug 14

    overtime

    • Aug 11 · SHIP INCIDENT · unverified
      Houthi attack on Egyptian cargo ship Tihamah kills 6 — first Houthi fatalities since Feb 28; US disables blockade-runner Vela Nova JINSA
    • Aug 14 · MILITARY POSTURE
      Hegseth: US Navy can maintain Iran blockade 'indefinitely'; talks in deadlock Al Jazeera

    + 4 more records this week

  25. Week 25Aug 15 – Aug 21

    overtime

    • Aug 17 · DEAL DEAD
      60-day MOU negotiation deadline expires with no deal; Trump threatens to bomb Oman CBS News
    • Aug 18 · TALKS OFF
      Trump: 'no talks or conversations' with Iran; posts Hormuz map as 'NEW U.S. Territory'; orders diplomacy paused indefinitely Times of Israel

    + 10 more records this week

  26. Week 26Aug 22 – Aug 28

    overtime

    • Aug 24 · SANCTIONS
      Treasury launches 'Operation Economic Outcast' on 'Economic D-Day' U.S. Treasury
    • Aug 26 · VICTORY
      Donald Trump: “We had the victory in Venezuela, and we're going to have a big victory here very soon.” Roll Call Factba.se (transcript)

    + 10 more records this week

  27. Week 27Aug 29 – Sep 4

    overtime

    • Sep 1 · STRIKE
      US strikes ~100 IRGC targets; first strikes on Iranian state oil tankers under 'tanker for tanker' policy CENTCOM (via GlobalSecurity)
    • Sep 2 · RETALIATION
      Iran launches largest barrage since April 8 ceasefire: 59+ missiles/drones at Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq JINSA

    + 8 more records this week

  28. Week 28Sep 5 – Sep 11

    overtime

    • Sep 5 · STRIKE · unverified
      US destroys three Iranian oil tankers (Downy, Stark 1, Kylo) after IRGC fires on US warships JINSA
    • Sep 11 · OTHER MAJOR EVENT
      Drone strikes from Iraq hit Saudi East-West pipeline; Saudi shuts it; Brent >$104, US diesel record >$6 Al Jazeera

    + 6 more records this week

  29. Week 29Sep 12 – Sep 18

    overtime

    • Sep 14 · TALKS OFF · unverified
      Iran SNSC Secretary Rezaei rejects resuming talks: 'No talks until Iran's conditions are met. Period!' JINSA
    • Sep 18 · SHIP INCIDENT · unverified
      IRGC strikes Togo-flagged vessel for 'illegal passage' through Hormuz JINSA

    + 4 more records this week

  30. Week 30Sep 19 – Sep 25

    overtime

    • Sep 21 · VICTORY
      Brad Cooper: “100 percent effective” JINSA
    • Sep 22 · SHIP INCIDENT
      Two tankers struck by unidentified projectiles in Hormuz (Sep 21-22); Saudi East-West pipeline restarts at reduced rate JINSA

    + 13 more records this week

  31. Week 31Sep 26 – Oct 2

    overtime · the estimate is revised

    • Sep 26 · DEAL DEAD
      Trump rejects Iran's seven-day Hormuz reopening proposal ('I'm rejecting their deal') Al Jazeera
    • Sep 29 · SHIP INCIDENT
      Three Liberian-flagged tankers (Al Ruwais, Mersin Prosperity, Sinbad) struck by unidentified projectiles in Hormuz; Kuwaiti tanker also hit Oman Observer (Reuters)

    + 14 more records this week

  32. Week 32Oct 3 – Oct 9

    overtime

    • Oct 5 · SHIP INCIDENT
      Record week of Hormuz tanker attacks (12 in Sep 28-Oct 5); On Peace hit, 12 crew injured The Star (Reuters)
    • Oct 9 · SHIP INCIDENT
      VLCC GEM NO.2 struck off UAE; IRGC claims hit on LPG carrier NV Sunshine and vows to pursue ships on 'unauthorised' routes gCaptain (Reuters)

    + 10 more records this week

  33. Week 33Oct 10 – Oct 16

    overtime

    • Oct 10 · STRIKE
      Houthi missile hits Riyadh King Khalid airport passenger terminal, 12 killed and 300+ wounded — deadliest attack on a Gulf state of the war AP (via WUNC/NPR)
    • Oct 10 · SHIP INCIDENT
      US jet disables blockade-running cargo ship Ocean Molica in Gulf of Oman; IRGC says 'violating' supertanker exploded on mines gCaptain

    + 14 more records this week

  34. Week 34Oct 17 – Oct 19

    this week

    • Oct 17 · VICTORY
      JD Vance: “in some ways we have won decisively” CBS News
    • Oct 17 · SHIP INCIDENT · unverified
      IRGC claims two supertankers hit mines on 'unauthorised' Hormuz route, one carrying 2 million barrels; no independent confirmation Kurdistan24

    + 4 more records this week